FOMO & the player auction
The Hockey India League (HIL) held its player auction for the 2024/25 season on 13, 14 and 15 October 2024. The open player auction, which was live streamed on YouTube, provides a unique insight into the value placed on players by some of the world’s elite coaches.
Features of the auction
The men’s HIL features eight teams, with each team permitted to acquire a maximum of 24 players. The squad include a maximum of eight non-Indian players and must include a minimum of four junior Indian players (i.e., under 21) .
Each team had a budget of ₹4 crore (A$720,000) to acquire their squad. The teams had to secure 20 players in the open auction and, once this was achieved, each team lodged a closed bid to acquire the remaining four players.
The supply of players was greater than the demand for players. There were 192 spots on offer in the men’s competition. However, over 400 domestic men’s players and over 150 overseas players registered for the auction. The reserve price for marquee players was ₹10 lakh (A$18,000). There were two other groups in the auction – players with a reserve price of ₹5 lakh (A$9000) and those with a reserve price of ₹2 lakh (A$3600).
Players were auctioned sequentially with the most valuable players offered first.
Bidding
The members of the Indian national team were the first to be auctioned followed by high-profile international players. The sequencing created a sense of FOMO – fear of missing out – in the auction. The most frenetic bidding occurred in the first group of 100 players (see Figure 1). The highest valued player was Harmanpreet Singh at ₹78 lakh (A$140,400) followed by Abhishek at ₹72 lakh (A$129,600) and Hardik Singh at ₹70 lakh (A$126,000). There were much lower prices and more unsold players as the auction progressed but it still featured the odd price spike. This was often for players who were in, or had recently been in, the junior Indian national team (e.g, Uttam Singh for ₹23 lakh (A$41,400) at slot 284 and Angbad Bir Singh for ₹26 lakh (A$46,800) at slot 504).
Figure 1: Price by sequence in which players were auctioned
Notes: (i) Drag flickers were identified based on whether they performed this role at the Paris Olympics or for the Indian junior World Cup team. (ii) Players acquired in the closed bid round are not shown in this figure.
Player valuations
Player valuations were the largest uncertainty faced by teams at the auction. Should a franchise Harmanpreet Singh for ₹78 lakh (A$140,400), equivalent to 19.5% of their overall purse, or should it wait for a similar drag flicker later in the auction? If the franchise waits, will the next drag flicker be more or less expensive? Two highly individualised roles in hockey – drag flickers and goalkeepers – provide some insights into these questions as these roles have less dependence on the other players selected for the team.
Drag flickers
There is no doubt that the drag flicker is the most important role in modern hockey. It is usually a team’s primary source of goals, and directly contributes to a team’s success on the field.
The pool of world-class drag flickers is extremely limited. Most countries only use one or two drag flickers. At the Paris Olympics, there were often significant differences between the performance of first choice drag flickers and second choice drag flickers. For instance, Australia’s first choice, Blake Govers, scored 3 goals from 17 attempts while its second choice drag flicker, Jeremy Hayward, scored 0 goals from 7 attempts. India’s preferred drag flicker, Harmanpreet Singh, scored 7 goals from 41 attempts while its second choice, Amit Rohidas, scored 0 goals from 6 attempts. The top drag flickers from the Paris Olympics are illustrated in Table 1.
Table 1: Top drag flickers at Paris 2024
Notes: Drag flicker must have made at least 10 attempts to be included in this list.
Unsurprisingly, world class drag flickers were among the most highly sought after players at the HIL player auction. Four of the top six highest bids for players at the auction were drag flickers:
Harmanpreet Singh at ₹78 lakh (A$140,400)
Gonzalo Peillat at ₹68 lakh (A$122,400)
Jip Janssen at ₹54 lakh (A$97,200)
Amit Rohidas at ₹48 lakh (A$86,400)
These players were auctioned at slots 11, 58, 56 and 5 respectively.
Two well-known international drag flickers, Alexander Hendrickx and Blake Govers, were sold much later in the auction at slots 134 and 145. The price paid for these players was ₹23 lakh (A$41,400) and ₹27 lakh (A$48,600) respectively. The Kalinga Lancers’ acquisition of Hendrickx seems like a good deal given his performance in Paris. The Argentinian, Maico Casella, went unsold when initially auctioned at slot 160. He was later acquired at reserve price (₹10 lakh, A$18,000) by the Hyderabad Toofans in the closed auction.
These results indicate that FOMO might have contributed to high prices for drag flickers early in the auction. It was possible to find a valuable drag flicker (e.g., Casella) by being patient and waiting for the auction to progress. This tactic arises due to the fixed budgets and self-imposed quotas of each team. For instance, once a team acquires a drag flicker the value it places on an additional drag flicker should be lower. While a team may place value on acquiring a drag flicker to deny that player’s services to another team, this is difficult to do effectively when the budget is limited.
Goalkeepers
Goalkeepers were another interesting category in the auction. Each team could acquire three goalkeepers. With the exception of Sreejesh and Luis Calzado, most of the top keepers from Paris (see Table 2) were in the auction. The top six international keepers from Paris were acquired early in the auction and they each went to different teams. The average price for a keeper from this group was ₹22 lakh (A$39,600) though there was variance across the group:
Pirmin Blaak at ₹25 lakh (A$45,000)
Vincent Vanasch at ₹23 lakh (A$41,400)
Oliver Payne at ₹15 lakh (A$27,000)
Tomas Santiago at ₹10 lakh (A$18,000)
David Harte at ₹32 lakh (A$57,600)
Jean-Paul Danneberg at ₹27 lakh (A$48,600)
The teams valued the top Indian keepers on par with their international peers. The most expensive keepers in the auction were Krishan B Pathak, India’s new goalkeeper, and David Harte who both sold for ₹32 lakh (A$57,600). India’s second goalkeeper, Suraj Karkera, sold for ₹22 lakh (A$39,600). By comparison, Delhi SG Pipers’ acquisition of the Argentinian keeper, Tomas Santiago, seems like an astute purchase.
Table 2: Top goalkeepers at Paris 2024
Once teams had secured their top goalkeeper, there was little demand for goalkeepers throughout the remainder of the auction. Several teams waited until the closed auction to acquire there third goalkeeper, and Rarh Bengal Tigers, acquired two keepers during this period.
The only team to take a different approach with goalkeepers was UP Rudras. They secured one Indian goalkeeper Prashant Kumar Chauhaun for the reserve price of ₹5 lakh (A$9000) at slot 233 and one overseas goalkeeper, James Mazarelo (GBR), for ₹13 lakh (A$23,400) at slot 363 which was relatively late in the auction. It will be interesting to compare the effectiveness of UP Rudras strategy for goalkeepers to the other teams when the matches begin.
To wait or not to wait?
So is it better to wait? It depends.
There are players and abilities that are worth securing early in the auction but having a flexibility is the key to success. Build-around players (usually key midfielders like Hardik Singh) are probably the most critical resource to secure early in the auction. Build-around players are essential for a team to understand the additional players it requires to be successful on the field. If a team does not secure a build-around player early then it risks acquiring players that do not work well together. Once a key build-around player has been secured then there were several options for securing players to complement the build-around player.
In the case of drag flickers and first-choice goalkeepers, the early players to be auctioned in each category were usually the most expensive (e.g., Harmanpreet Singh and David Harte). It is unclear if the premiums were justified. Several teams were able to secure good players by waiting until late in the auction. It is too early to tell whether this was the right choice. Ultimately, the best test of each team’s auction strategy will come on the field.