Keep on flickin’?

Goals from drag flicks proved decisive in each of the Round 3 Hockey One League (M) matches last week. James Day scored Canberra Chill’s decisive opener in its match against HC Melbourne; Ehren Hazell drag flicked NSW Pride’s crucial opener against Adelaide Fire; and Liam Flynn (Perth Thundersticks) and Joel Rintala (Brisbane Blaze) traded drag flicks in the clash between the league leaders, with Flynn scoring a brace and Rintala scoring one and gaining an assist as Cole Cramer (Brisbane Blaze) slotted in a rebound from his flick.

During the first three rounds of the tournaments 19 of the 23 goals from penalty corners (PCs) were scored directly from a drag flick. It is perhaps no surprise that the two leading teams - Perth Thundersticks and Brisbane Blaze - have secured the most goals from drag flicks, with Rintala and Flynn each scoring four goals and Cambell Geddes (Perth Thundersticks) scoring two goals.

The preferred target for Round 3 drag flicks might surprise. All goal-scoring drag flicks were low, with three going to the left of the keeper (facing the goal) and two going to the right of the keeper (see Figure 1). The shots to the right of the keeper tended to be a little higher than the shots on the left. Most teams adopt a 3:1 defensive set up for PCs, with the keeper covering the left post (from the attacker’s perspective). The drag flickers appeared to focus on getting the ball just past the pads of the typically upright keepers rather than shooting high on goal.

Figure 1: Approximate drag flick locations during Round 3.
Notes: Circles denote goals, crosses denote saves or misses.
Colours indicate teams - Blue for Canberra; Red for NSW; Orange for Brisbane and Yellow for Perth.

The power of the drag flick is illustrated through its efficacy. There have been 103 PCs during the first three rounds of the Hockey One League. Of these, drag flicks have been used 69 times with a success rate of 29 per cent (including goals via rebounds and secondary shots). By comparison, the success rate of other PC options is 14 per cent (3 goals from 21 attempts).

There has been 13 PCs where the team has elected to take the ball outside the five metre line to create a field goal opportunity. Only one field goal has been scored from this option, implying a success rate of 8 per cent. The expected value from this option is a little higher due to the conversion opportunity it creates. However, it remains well below the expected value from generating field goal shots in general play (see below).

The Hockey One teams have scored 20 field goals scored from 94 shots - a success rate of 21 per cent - during the first three rounds of the competition (data excludes shots and goals from the PC-related option to take the ball outside the five metre line). A field goal is worth 1.68 goals due to the probability of scoring the associated conversion. Therefore, the expected value of a field goal shot is 0.36 goals (i.e., 1.68 x 0.21), which is a little higher than the expected value of a drag flick (0.29 goals).

The data suggests teams should pursue field goals as a first preference but should avoid manufacturing field goal opportunities when they have a PC. Unequivocally, the best option on a PC is to pursue a drag flick.

NOTE ON DATA According to the FIH rules a penalty corner is not completed if another penalty corner is awarded while the first is underway. This rule can lead to different treatment of penalty corner statistics by different scorers. For clarity, we identify and count a PC each time the umpire makes a signal for a penalty corner. The PC success rates reported in this post are based on this metric. We also track Penalty Corner Phases, which only count PCs awarded from general play. A Penalty Corner Phase may include one or more PCs.

Separately, we link a team’s decision to take a ball outside the five metre line on a penalty corner to our data on a team’s PC options and success metrics. While, technically, the penalty corner phase is over at this point, we believe this approach more accurately reflects the team’s intent and success with PCs.